The Mariners have locked one of the sport’s brightest young stars into a record-setting contract, announcing late Friday night that they have signed the Rookie of the Year nominee. Julio Rodriguez to extend. The deal, which begins this season, guarantees him $210 million over 12 years and contains player and club options that could extend the term of the contract and push the total value to $470 million. It is also reported that Rodriguez, an Octagon customer, is receiving a full no-trade clause.
It is one of the most complex contracts agreed in the history of the Major League. According to reports from Jeff Bassan from ESPN And the Ken Rosenthal From The AthleteRodriguez will earn $120 million through 2029. Bear Rosenthal, takes the form of a $15 million signing bonus paid up front, with $105 million distributed between 2023 and 29. After the seventh year of the contract (2028), sailors must decide whether They would have effectively re-extended Rodriguez for either eight or ten years, with the size and value of the long-term “club option” dependent on how Rodriguez ended up being voted the best player.
At the very least, Seattle will decide whether to extend the contract for eight years and another $200 million. That number could mount as follows, depending on how Rodriguez ends up in the Player of the Year ballot over the next seven years:
- $240 million over eight years with finishes or three places in the top ten
- $260 million over eight years, with four of the top ten finishes
- $280 million over eight years if he wins the MVP award And the Finishes in the top five again or Finished in the top five in the Ballon d’Or on three occasions
- $350 million over ten years if he wins two best player awards or Among the top five on the ballot on four occasions
Should Rodriguez reach the highest threshold and the Mariners exercise the option, the contract will have a maximum of 18 years and $470 million in total value.
If the sailors do not exercise their multi-year option after year seven, Rodriguez will have a five-year player option worth $90 million that he can exercise after year eight of the contract. (This option could be worth up to $125.5 million based on its Silver Slugger vote finishes and All-Star appearances.) That $90 million figure is guaranteed money, as is all player options. Between the $120 million that will be paid out over the next eight seasons and the $90 million base value of the player option, Rodriguez’s guarantee lands at the aforementioned $210 million. There is, of course, a scenario where Mariners do not choose the “club option” for 8-10 years, and Rodriguez also rejects the “player option” for five years, which would then allow him access to free agency after raising $120 million over eight years, when Heading to his campaign at the age of thirty.
Rodriguez, 21, broke camp with the Mariners this season and, after two grueling weeks to start the year, shot to stardom immediately and established himself as one of the frontrunners for the Rookie of the Year awards. He currently hits .269/.328/.471 with 20 home runs, 19 doubles, triples and 23 steals (in 29 attempts)—plus above-average defensive contributions in the center field.
Those numbers are at least slightly skewed due to a poor start to the year that Rodriguez fought .136/.208/.159 with a 45% strike rate. Dating April 22, Rodriguez has mashed up a .285/.342/.508 clip. This production is about 46% better than the league average after park and league weight, on the WRC+ scale, putting it in a three-way tie with Alex Bergman It was also recently extended Austin Riley Ranked 12th among the best qualifying hitters in the league. Rodriguez also ranks 13th in both average exit speed (92 mph) and hardest hit rate (49.6%) in that time, and his barrel average of 14.9% is the ninth best mark for the MLB.
Add the fact that he did all this at the age of 21 and after skipping Triple A altogether, and the junior season becomes even more special. Given that youth and lack of underage seasoning, it’s entirely possible that although Rodriguez is already among the best hitters in the game, we haven’t yet seen his best.
From a defensive standpoint, Rodriguez has held more than his midfield position this season, turning positive marks into defending points saved (2), absolute area rating (0.3) and averaged (5). Several survey reports prior to his MLB debut suggested that as Rodriguez gets older and continues to fill in, he could be destined for a hole in the outer corner, but given his raw strength of 70 or even 80 degrees and the hard work he’s done in the center this In the season, he will have the bats and the defensive pieces will likely be an above-average contributor to the right or left field.
The $210 million guarantee would set Rodriguez the record for the largest contract signed by a player under a year of Major League service time. This distinction currently belongs to Rays shortstop Franco’s walkwho signed for 11 years, $182 million extension last november.
Rodriguez would easily drop this sign, even though it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. Franco was not promoted until mid-season and his deal was signed in the winter, when Rays left six full seasons of club control over him. With Rodriguez on the opening day roster, he will have a full year of service in 2022 and will have “only” five more years of club control remaining. In that respect, it could technically be seen as more than one player plus (between one and two years of service time), although even when viewing the contract through that lens, it’s still a record-breaking deal; K Brian Hayes70 million dollars extension In Pittsburgh the previous record for a player was one to two years on duty.
Whatever class of service one thinks applies more appropriately to Rodriguez, this new deal now stands as the largest contract ever pledged to a player with less than two years of Major League service time. In that aspect, Rodriguez and the Major League Baseball Players Association are sure to be delighted to see the former stretches of young stars move forward.
After all that said, there is still a possibility that the contract will be in favor of the sailors. Rodriguez’s earnings will likely be close to the league’s minimum salary for the next two seasons (plus any payments from the collectively negotiated bonus pool to players prior to arbitration). A player with early difficulty and dominance is likely to do well in judging, and while we can never tell exactly How much is earned through this process, arbitration is generally based on precedent. Find recent comparisons, Mocky Pets He earned $57.5 million for the three seasons of judging. If we put Rodriguez in that wide area, his remaining five years of club control could have netted him somewhere in the $60 million range – perhaps a few million more if he picked up the Homecoming Player of the Year award and/or pushed the Bates precedent a little further. .
An average of $15 million will be paid to Rodriguez over the next eight seasons, with at least two free seasons purchased for the agent. This clearly pales in comparison to what he would have earned in the open market had he gone year to year and hit the free-agent market before his 27-year season, and the Mariners would have a chance to hold on. of access to free agency at any time in its prime. This trade-off between risk and reward is the nature of early contract extensions, of course. Obviously, there is a significant risk of injury or downturn in performance for Rodriguez, all of which are included in the relative discount rate for those open market seasons.
From a team salary standpoint, there is plenty of room for Seattle to make such a commitment. Much of the recent team rebuilding has been devoted to removing the long-term clutter from the books – for example, Robinson Kano Trade – and the team’s long-term commitments are now fairly minimal. the left Ruby Ray He was signed during the 2026 season, as is Shortstop GB CrawfordBut they’ll only be raising $37 million at that point. This would only have been Rodriguez’s fifth major league season, so the salaries in his contract would not have skyrocketed.
Looking at the short term, books are still relevant, too. Sailors, who will see veterans Mitch Hanniger And the Adam Fraser Access to a free agency at the end of the season, and you had just over $63 million in guaranteed money on your 2023 payroll prior to this decade. This number does not include an $8 million option for righty Chris Flexenand does not include a handful of arbitration effects: Luis Castillo (earned $7.35 million this season), Diego Castillo ($2.315 million), Paul Swald ($1.735 million), Ty France (before erb) and Eric Swanson (before Arb).
It’s a momentous day in Mariners history, one that drives powerfully into the organization’s “win now” mentality as it heads toward the post-season berth that would break a two-decade drought – currently the longest in major professional sports in North America. There are risks to both parties, but the contract is a continuation of the ever-increasing trend of expanding young stars with nine-figure rates guaranteed to a player full of prime. The decade also seals in on Rodriguez as the new face of Baseball Mariners for the next decade, ensuring them a charismatic and marketable star around him to build the roster and sell the product to the fan base.
MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez first mentioned The two sides are close to an extension of more than $200 million guaranteed, with a total value of up to $450 million. Jeff Bassan from ESPN mentioned Contract term and exact warranty. USA TODAY Bob Nightingale mentioned The agreement was in place. Basan And the Provided details of the financial statements. Rosenthal I also mentioned that the deal contains an entire no-trade clause.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.